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Iowa’s results notwithstanding, it's still Trump and Sanders to beat in NH

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By Paul Briand

It’s Iowa for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton.

It will probably be New Hampshire for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

But the Monday night results of the Iowa caucuses showed that both Clinton and Trump are vulnerable, and the results next week here could play that out.

Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire will be more about who finished second and by what margin.

For former Secretary of State Clinton, in finishing second to Vermont Sen. Sanders in the Democratic primary, the question will be whether she gets slaughtered by a double-digit margin, or whether she can keep Sanders close by under 10 percent.

If she keeps Sanders close, her path to the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia is that much easier. If not, this could very much be a difficult race for Clinton in the months ahead.

Make no mistake: Even though he came in second in Iowa, Sanders won the expectations race by finishing so close to Clinton. Martin O’Malley, the former Maryland governor and third Democrat in the race, suspended his campaign after a poor showing in Iowa.

Trump’s double-digit lead in New Hampshire is strong but isn’t bulletproof. A lot can happen between now and next Tuesday.

Even if Trump holds on in New Hampshire, the momentum going forward -- to South Carolina and Nevada -- could go to those who finish second and third.

Momentum could have everything to do with the Republican National Convention in Cleveland and a lot to do with what happens on Election Day, Nov. 8.

Cruz’s win in Monday night’s Iowa caucuses could play significantly in New Hampshire, as does the third place finish for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

While that may not be enough momentum for Cruz or Rubio seven days hence in New Hampshire, it could very well propel them to start chipping away at Trump as the primary cycle moves forward.

History shows, as New Hampshire primary pundits know, that a win in New Hampshire isn’t a guarantee of wins going forward. But we know from that same experience that momentum accounts for a lot and that momentum is often displayed by the No. 2 finisher, not the No. 1.

The polls show Sanders and Trump with double-digit leads going into next Tuesday’s voting.

But there is a critically important subtext to these polls, as shown by the latest CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

In both the Republican poll and the Democratic poll, there is a portion of the results with a header that indicates most voters haven’t yet made up their minds.

Here’s the math: Sanders is ahead of Clinton 57 to 34 percent among voters likely to participate in the Democratic primary. But 24 percent of those voters have not committed themselves to a candidate. As Andrew Smith, survey center director, said and has said quite often: “New Hampshire voters typically decide who they will vote for in the last weeks, or days of the campaign.”

Personally, I don’t think that’s enough to stop the Sanders freight train in New Hampshire, but those undecideds could give Clinton the single-digit No. 2 finish and the required momentum she needs going forward.

Among Republicans, the No. 2 toss-up is among Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Cruz now has national momentum going for him, but Kasich has worked the hardest -- spent the most time, held the most town halls - than any of the GOP candidates, and Granite Staters often reward you for that kind of hard work.

The UNH poll has Trump at 30 percent, Cruz at 12 percent, Rubio at 11 percent, Kasich at 9 percent, followed by the rest of the field that I don’t think will be much of a factor next week.

Again, pollster Smith notes in the subtext: “NH Republicans still undecided.”

Thirty percent of likely voters in the GOP primary support Trump, but a whopping 37 percent are still trying to decide. That’s more than enough leeway for a Cruz, a Rubio or even a Kasich, with a strong second place or third place finish, to play Trump spoiler.

 

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