Planners still projecting “Silver Tsunami”

The NH Office of Energy and Planning released new demographic estimates this week, projecting that New Hampshire’s elderly population would continue to rise while its younger demographic declines.

The NHOEP makes such projections twice between each 10-year census. Trends this time around were similar to those in its last report, which was released three years ago.

The population of Granite State residents aged 65 and older is expected to more than double between 2010 and 2040, rising to constitute roughly 28% of the population, up from 14% in 2010.

The projected increase is even more dramatic for residents aged 85 and older, who are expected to more than triple in numbers. Meanwhile, the population of residents under age 15 will decline.

Migration of younger workers out of the state was noted as an area of concern. The trend was particularly noticeable in rural and northern communities.

After 2040, every New Hampshire county is expected to see population decline as deaths begin to outnumber births and in-migration.

Policymakers are already talking about some of the possible implications of an aging demographic, including the potential for increased pressure on state programs such as Medicaid, while businesses express concern about their continued ability to find qualified workers. Lower enrollment could also put pressure on school systems.

This has led some to call for policies they believe would help encourage younger residents to stay in New Hampshire or attract young workers from other states. These include expanding transportation infrastructure, improving the quality and affordability of education, or cutting business taxes to encourage job creation. There continues to be a great deal of debate as to which of these policies—or others—would be most effective in encouraging young people to live in New Hampshire. 

Do you think New Hampshire should be concerned about an aging demographic? Leave a comment.